Why There Are Only 12 Days of Christmas

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By now, you may be getting very tired of the Christmas carol equivalent of "The Wheels on the Bus Go Round and Round".

We're talking of course about "The Twelve Days of Christmas" song. You know, the one with "five goooooolden rings" and "a partridge in a pear tree".

What most people don't fully appreciate about the carol is just how much stuff is being doled out in the twelve days it spans. Not even PNC Wealth Management, the people who calculate the value of the gifts being given out on each day in the song each year, really get it.

You see, they treat the math as if only one gift is being given out on each of the 12 days, whether it be a single set of 10 lords-a-leaping on Day 10 or 3 French hens on Day 3. But here's the thing - if you pay close attention to the lyrics, many of the gifts are repeated on each subsequent day after being given out.

So instead of just one partridge in a pear tree, the recipient of all this true love would actually have 12 - one partridge in a pear tree for each day the song goes on. The "goooooolden rings" would be pretty cool to get, because you'd be getting 40 of them, which you could then equally divide among the 40 milking maids would would start arriving in batches of eight on Day 8.

Needless to say, this is a lot of stuff to keep track of, which is why we've created today's tool, which you can use to keep track of how many total items have been transferred as gifts through each day of Christmas. Just enter the day, and we'll tell you just how many items we're talking about....

Days of Christmas
Input Data	Values
What Day of Christmas Is It?

How Many Gifts Have Been Given to Your True Love?
Calculated Results	Values
Gifts Given on Entered Day of Christmas
Total Gifts Accumulated Through Entered Day of Christmas

And there you have it. Going back to the title of our post "Why Christmas Only Has 12 Days", we find that after 12 days, the gift recipient in the song has accumulated 364 items - enough for every other day of the year (except for leap years, but don't tell the 10 lords.)

You can get a visual sense of all the gifts given during these twelve days in the following image, which was the inspiration for today's post!

This is our final post for 2012 - we'll see you again in the new year. In the meantime, we'll leave you with the only tolerable version of "The Twelve Days of Christmas" that we could find:

Have a Merry Christmas!

I've Been Banned

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CREDIT: True Dinos

CREDIT: True Dinos

So much for having a conversation.  


I visited the FaceBook page, True Dinos, of a young Earth creationist (YEC) run a fellow named Aaron Tulllock.  You can no longer see my posts, because I've blocked by the administrator for "being a troll." 
What did I do?
I asked about the design of the vas deferens and the recurrent laryngeal nerve. [See Smack Down.] Here's what left of the comments about Intelligent Design.

CREDIT: True Dinos

Then there was my comments on this post. Since True Dinos is also a biblical literalist, I informed him that the bible literally claims that the Sun revolves around the Earth. When pressed by another YEC called The Question Evolution Project, I provided not only the biblical verses, but a link to other biblical literalists who truly believe in geocentrism. [Regular readers might know my earlier blog posts Your Elementary School Teachers Were Right and LA Times Does Story on Geocentrism.] He never responded; in fact, his comments on True Dinos have been wiped.
Since The Question Evolution Project was unwilling to confront his obvious hypocrisy on the bible being literally true, I visited The Question Evolution Project FaceBook page. Because I had the audacity to debate, he promptly blocked me . 
Oh, what am I to do now? 
If any of the administrators from those pages wish to comment on this blog, they are free to do so.  All I ask is that they not do so anonymously. They are free to use whatever language they see fit to use. They will not be banned.
A bit more about these two pages.
Aaron Tullock (True Dinos) claims to have sighted a living pterosaur in 1995 in Marion County, Texas. The fossil and geologic evidence shows quite dramatically that  these reptiles became extinct about 65.5 million years ago. An excellent resource for those interested in pterosaurs is Pterosaur.net.
The paleontologists there say

Unusual winged animals reported from around the world have been suggested by some cryptozoologists and creationists to be modern-day pterosaurs that survived the end-Cretaceous extinction event. From Africa, people have reported a semi-aquatic winged animal called the kongamato while on New Guinea and the surrounding islands sightings are claimed of a gigantic, bioluminescent, crested flying creature (the duah) and a smaller, long-tailed version, the ropen. Fossil evidence demonstrates overwhelmingly that pterosaurs did not survive beyond the end of the Cretaceous, and the sightings of pterosaur-like animals that have been reported appear to be a combination of hoaxes and misidentification of large birds and bats. So-called modern pterosaurs are generally ugly, dark, carnivorous, bat-winged horrors—they sound more like imaginary generic flying monsters than the pterosaurs we know from the fossil record.

Like these other foundational scientific theories, the theory of evolution is supported by so many observations and confirming experiments that scientists are confident that the basic components of the theory will not be overturned by new evidence.

Plus technically speaking, pterosaurs aren't dinosaurs, although they did coexist.
Now for The Question Evolution Project.  In their About section, they write "true science is not afraid to examine contrary evidence and allows alternative theories to the interpretation of the evidence." Agreed. Science does not make progress without questioning.  Consider the Copernican revolution or the quantum revolution. So why was I banned? I presented biblical evidence that didn't fit their preconceived notions about what the bible says. 
On the other hand, "the Admins have other things to do besides engage in lengthy debates." It's strange that for people that being interested in "scientific evidence and its interpretation" and "intellectual honesty and freedom," they refuse to discuss anything.  How does The Question Evolution Project feel about questions? They say "[the site] is for people who can think for themselves and dare to ask questions," but don't ask them if they're geocentrists, because that will get you banned.
One last item, The Question Evolution Project claims that evolution is not a fact."  What do scientists say about that?  
The National Academy of Sciences says 

Like these other foundational scientific theories, the theory of evolution is supported by so many observations and confirming experiments that scientists are confident that the basic components of the theory will not be overturned by new evidence.

The American Association for the Advancement of Science states

But the phenomenon of gravity, like evolution, is an accepted fact.

I imagine The Question Evolution Project will just say we're being bullies.

Dr. Oz's Diet Advice

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I was really bored yesterday, August 6, 2012.  Flipping through the channels, I came upon the Dr. Oz show, and I wondered what woo he was pushing today.  Sure enough, he begins the show with metabolism boosters.  
I immediately began to wonder whether a person can really boost their metabolism by simply drinking tomato juice spiked with a little Tabasco sauce and lime juice, but then he said this.
"And while wine snobs may not approve, adding ice chips to your red wine forces your body to burn calories, as it has to use its own energy to warm the liquid to body temperature."
Let's see what science has to say about this.
One learns in both physics and chemistry courses that to raise the temperature of any substance it takes an amount of energy equal to Q = mcdT where m is the mass of the substance, dT is the final temperature minus the initial temperature, and c is called the specific heat. The specific heat takes into account all the complicated physics and chemistry of how energy is distributed among the atoms and molecules.
I went to my freezer and looked at a ice cube - technically it's not a cube, it's a rectangular solid, but I'm being pedantic.  I don't have a kitchen scale, so I'll determine its mass by measuring its dimensions.  My cube is 5 cm by 3 cm by 3.5 cm or about 53 cm³.  The density of ice is 0.998 grams per cubic centimeter, so I can calculate its mass by multiplying the density by the volume.  Therefore, my ice cube's mass is 53 grams.
The ice will melt and cool the wine as cold as 0ºC.  After you drink the wine, your body will warm the liquid to body temperature, about 37ºC.
The specific heat of water is 1 calorie per gram per Celsius degree.  So your body will use 

Q = (53 g)(1 cal/(g ºC))(37ºC–0ºC) = 1961 calories.

But I have to correct something here.  A food calorie is different from a calorie.  A food calorie, also called the Calorie (notice the capital C), is equal to 1000 calories.
So your body has to expend almost 2 Calories to warm the cold wine.  I think you can burn 2 Calories by breathing for a whole minute.

UPDATE: Oops! I made a mistake here.  Your body has to warm all the liquid, not just the melted ice.  If you have a standard serving of wine, 6 oz., then your body expends 8.5 Calories.
You can do a little better by eating the ice, since your body has to melt the ice, too.  I''ll spare you the details, but that takes a whopping 4 10 Calories! Assuming you drink the wine, too.

Even if you live a sedentary lifestyle, you will burn at least 1200 Calories every day by just existing. This is your metabolic activity. If you are active, your metabolic activity can be as high as 3000 Calories.  
If you want a little dieting advice, I share with you the only diet proven to work.  
The Thermodynamic Diet
The 1st law of thermodynamics states that one cannot create nor destroy energy.  All that can be done is to convert energy from one form to another.  Your body converts chemical energy in the food to kinetic energy (energy of motion) and thermal energy (you may call that heat, but that's technically incorrect).  Any energy not converted into these two forms may be converted into another form of chemical energy; that is, weight gain.
So the thermodynamic diet is burn more calories than you ingest.

I'm Being Sued?

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Almost a month ago, I wrote about how I had been banned by a couple of Facebook users FaceBookers, The Question Evolution Project and True Dinos.  In the post I invited both of them to respond.  It took them three weeks, but Cowboy Bob Sorensen did on this blog,and Aaron Tullock did on his True Dinos Facebook FB page.I'm a physicist, not a lawyer, but I'm pretty sure I didn't post anything illegally.  Both of the Facebook pages are public, as are their web pages.  I believe that the Fair Use Doctrine may apply.

As to the defamation charge, Aaron needs to know the difference between slander and libel.  Notwithstanding the vocabulary, I think libel is " to publish in print (including pictures), writing or broadcast through radio, television or film, an untruth about another which will do harm to that person or his/her reputation, by tending to bring the target into ridicule, hatred, scorn or contempt of others." [dictionary.law.com]  If Aaron can point out the untruth, I will gladly retract.
By the way, Cowboy Bob and Aaron, calling you out for your scientific nonsense is not ridiculing you for spreading your gospel.  I'm ridiculing you for believing in creationist gibberish.
Lastly, I will take this opportunity to once again invite them to address the issue that led them to ban me.

Both Cowboy Bob and Aaron are biblical literalists.  The bible literally says the Sun orbits the Earth.  [A historical point here.  Galileo was tried and convicted by the Catholic Church in 1633 for promoting the heliocentric model for which Pope John Paul II apologized in 1992.]  Do they adhere to the biblical view or is their bible wrong on this matter?  To make matters easy on them I will once again provide a link to true biblical literalists that know what the bible says on this. Galileo Was Wrong; The Church Was Right.

They are invited to comment here using whatever language they deem appropriate.  I ask that they do not do so anonymously.  They will not be banned.

I wonder if they will extend to me the same courtesy?

Twas the Night Before What?

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CREDIT: unknown

Isaac Newton, who in my not-so-humble-opinion may have been the smartest person to have lived, was born on the 25th of December 1642.*

In honor of his birth, I stole adapted the poem attributed to Clement Moore.  Here is

Twas the Night Before Newtonmas.

Twas the night before Newtonmas, when all through the house
Not a field was changing, not even a gauss.

The test tubes were stacked by the sink with care,

In hopes that Einstein soon would be there.

The faculty were huddled all smug in their wool threads,

While visions of bosons collided in their heads.

And the Dean at her desk, and I in my lab,

Had just collimated the particle beams at Fermilab.



When out on the quad there arose such a clatter,

I sprang from the lab to see what was the matter.

Away to the window I flew like a photon,

Tore open the shutters and spied an electron of Compton.



The radiation through the nearly ideal gas

Gave a Cerenkov blue hue to objects of mass.

When, what should appear in the department,

But a miniature CERN, and eight grad students.



With a little old professor, proclaiming "nein, nein, nein!",

I knew in a moment it must be Albert Einstein.

More rapid than eagles his coursers they came,

And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name!"

Now Bethe! now, Boltzmann! now, Maxwell and Feynman!
On, Noether! On, Pauli! on, on de Sitter and Gell-Mann!

To the top of the chart! to the top of the graph!

Now graph away! Graph away! Graph away staff!"

He sprang to his office, and his team of academicians,

And away they all flew like the neutrons of a fission.

But I heard him exclaim, ‘ere he theorized out of sight,
"Happy Newtonmas to all, and to all a good-night!"



*In an amazing coincidence, Galileo Galilei died this same year on the 8th of January.

Middle East On Fire - America In Decline : Why?

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The irony of all this posturing by the progressive socialists on the Middle East moving to Democracy is just wishful thinking. The progressives believe all they have to do is give lip service to a situation and that's all that is needed to change outcomes. Really?

Has the media asked Mr Obama how his strategy has worked in Lydia, Syria or Egypt? For that matter how is siding with the tyrants in Iran against the uprising of the people brought about any kind of Democracy. By his refusal to support the people in the street demonstrating for freedom in Iran, in which one woman died, he assured the continued power of a mass killers that are now threatening the entire Middle East and the world with nuclear weapons.

Whose fault is it that we are in this situation of half of the world on fire and our own country in decline? That easy, Barack Obama and the progressive socialist left Democrats. Who voted for this nightmare? Who are these people and where do they live?

Middle East Democracy
Walter E. Williams

Here's the first paragraph of my last year's column "Democracy Is Impossible":

"After Moammar Gadhafi's downfall as Libya's tyrannical ruler, politicians and 'experts' in the U.S. and elsewhere, including French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, are saying that his death marked the end of 42 years of tyranny and the beginning of democracy in Libya. Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., said Gadhafi's death represented an opportunity for Libya to make a peaceful and responsible transition to democracy. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said, 'Now it is time for Libya's Transitional National Council to show the world that it will respect the rights of all Libyans (and) guide the nation to democracy.' German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that 'Libya must now quickly make further determined steps in the direction of democracy.'"

It's good to have hope, but if we're going to be realistic, there's little chance for Middle East emergence of what we in the West call democracy.

Almost a year ago, both Egyptians and Westerners welcomed and celebrated the downfall of three decades of Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak's tyrannical rule. It was called an "Arab Spring." A year later, Egyptians are once again taking to the streets, this time protesting the tyrannical acts of President Mohamed Morsi, who represents the vision and ideological orientation of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Muslim Brotherhood's goal has always been to impose Shariah law. Egyptian tyranny hasn't been eliminated; its form has changed.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's dictatorship is now being challenged by a hodgepodge of armed resistance groups nominally united as the Free Syrian Army. Speaking for our nation, last year President Obama said, "The United States has been inspired by the Syrian peoples' pursuit of a peaceful transition to democracy. They have braved ferocious brutality at the hands of their government." Is al-Assad's downfall in any way more likely to produce democracy than Gadhafi's downfall or Mubarak's downfall? Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is optimistic in saying the rebel protest shows "the strong desire of the Syrian people ... for a Syria that is democratic, just and inclusive."

Wind Power Is Always A Loser : Taxpayers Always Pay

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This is just one more instance where the federal government has failed. This subject has been discussed over and over but the result is always the same, wind energy is a loser costing states and taxpayers billions for little or no realistic return.

By PHIL GRAMM

Federal subsidies for new wind-power generation will end on Dec. 31 unless they are renewed by Congress. For the sake of our economy and the smooth operation of the energy market, Congress should let the subsidies lapse. They waste taxpayer money, subvert the allocation of capital, and generate a social cost many times the price tag of the subsides themselves.

Since 1992, the federal government has expended almost $24 billion to encourage investment in wind power through direct spending, tax breaks, R&D, loan guarantees and other federal support of electric power. The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that a one-year extension of existing federal subsidies for wind power would cost taxpayers almost $12 billion.

The costs of wind subsidies are extraordinarily high—$52.48 per one million watt hours generated, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. By contrast, the subsidies for generating the same amount of electricity from nuclear power are $3.10, from hydropower 84 cents, from coal 64 cents, and from natural gas 63 cents.

In addition, wind power benefits from federal mandates requiring the use of renewable energy by federal agencies along with preferential treatment by the Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Forest Service. Many states provide additional tax breaks, subsidies and mandates for wind power. The total value of these additional subsidies has never been calculated.

But the cost to taxpayers is only part of the problem. Subsidized, wind-generated electricity is displacing other, much cheaper sources of power. The subsidies are so high that wind-power producers can pay utilities to take the electricity they produce and still make a profit. Such "negative pricing" has occurred for some time in the Midwest, the Pacific Northwest and in Texas—and, according to the Energy Information Administration, it will likely grow.

Hillary Clinton Missing? In Hiding? Not New Stuff

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Isn't this strange. History repeating itself?  Just when we need her the most, she takes a hike back into the shadows; remember this is where she has been for the last four years.

When one stops and gives this some thought, what exactly has she done for the last four years? What crisis has she defused or what proclamations has she made to change the world? All I can remember of her exploits is pictures of her smiling and shaking hands with some statesman or underling.

Truly, Hillary slipping between one catastrophic event and another this is not all that strange in that it's just more politics from the progressive socialists Democrats. That four our citizens died, were murdered, and that she and Mr Obama had direct access to information that could have saved them isn't important. What's important is making sure none of this can be linked to Mrs Clinton.

Just to jog your memory a little, remember Vincent Foster and the Clintons? To go one step further, the Clintons had more then 22 lawless episodes during their tenure at the White House. That she is linked to complete negligence now is no big deal. After all, we're taking about the Clintons and progressive liberal socialists Democrats.

If it weren't for total lawlessness and complete moral degradation, we wouldn' be having this conversation.

Where IS Hillary?
 DANIEL HALPER
On December 15, the day after the day after the shooting at a school in Newtown, Connecticut, State Department officials notified the press that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had fallen ill. "While suffering from a stomach virus, Secretary Clinton became dehydrated and fainted, sustaining a concussion," deputy assistant secretary Philippe Reines said in a statement to the press.

Since then, Clinton does not appear to have been sighted in public.

On December 19, Clinton missed the State Department holiday party. “I was going to congratulate her on her record-breaking travel,” President Obama said, noting her absence. “These are not frequent-flyer miles,” he joked. “She is tireless and extraordinary.”

On the same day as her office announced her illness, they also put out word that Clinton would be missing the Benghazi hearing scheduled for December 20 on Capitol Hill. Indeed, she did miss that hearing, and another one has not yet been scheduled.

And on December 21, Clinton missed President Obama's announcement that John Kerry would be nominated as the next secretary of state. "Hillary wanted very much to be here today, but she continues to recuperate. I had a chance to talk to her earlier today, and she is in good spirits and could not be more excited about the announcement that I’m making," Obama said at that event, again noting Clinton's absence.

Clinton's last trip, to the Czech Republic, Belgium, Ireland, and Northern Ireland, returned December 7.

Krauthammer on Obama's Over Regulations : A Video

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As usual, if you have watched Krauthammer in the past, he is on task here defining the regulation nightmare that the Obama administration is setting forth to strangle small businesses and our entire country.

The question that I have is why? One would think he would want more revenue coming into Washington that he could spend on his friends and voter base. But with all of these new regulations, jobs will not be created as businesses will hunker down for the next four years to avoid all the increased cost to comply.

Charles Krauthammer on Over Regulation on Small Business

http://dailycaller.com/2012/12/27/krauthammer-slams-obama-for-illegal-and-unconstitutional-regulatory-overreach/#ooid=11dm52NzpRQV3HqgQX-XYqldaOOcqYRg
During Wednesday’s broadcast of “Special Report” on the Fox News Channel, Washington Post columnist Charles Krauthammer criticized the Obama administration for something even President Barack Obama has admitted could be an obstacle to economic growth: the expansion of regulation through executive fiat.

As the number of regulations from the federal government is continuously expanding, the comment period for regulations has been shortened from 60 days to 45 days, a move that Krauthammer said overwhelms small businesses.

“At so many levels, this is a problem,” Krauthammer replied. “First of all [is] the volume, as you indicate, which is sort of overwhelming. If you are a small business, you have no idea what’s going to happen with your health care costs, your taxes, and all the other regulations. The second is the sort of intrusiveness of all of this, and the fact that it really hurts small business who don’t have the lawyers and the accountants, and the sharp — the former legislators who can work your way around the regulations.”

“Then you’ve got the lack of being open about it. The administration has this short comment period, where you are supposed to have 60 days, by executive order, and you’re not getting it. Which means essentially, the executive runs this.”
Krauthammer also commented on the legality of the regulatory environment, one of which he said reflected an “arrogance.”

“And lastly, you get the arrogance of it,” he continued, “the administration essentially enacting legislation on its own through regulation, the way it did the DREAM Act and the way it did in stripping away the work requirement in a reform of welfare.”

“So all of these things happened unilaterally. A lot of them, I think, are actually illegal and unconstitutional. But even if they are constitutional, they are incredibly destructive of small business.”


Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/12/27/krauthammer-slams-obama-for-illegal-and-unconstitutional-regulatory-overreach/#ixzz2GGdg9OlB

Entitlements Driving Economic Cliff Dive

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This is on point in that it is a spending problem we have not a revenue problem, but for the most of us that are awake and not sitting the front pew of the church of progressive socialism, know this already, it's not new stuff.

Still, anytime someone can bring to light the disaster that is coming for all of us, it can't hurt to keep repeating the cause and solution.

Entitlement and Interest Drive Fiscal Crisis
Romina Boccia
The end of 2012 was marked by lawmakers engaging in a distracting fiscal cliff debate over tax rates when the solution to the real fiscal crisis lies in an entirely different area of the budget.
Federal spending on entitlements and interest on the debt drives the federal budget crisis. Together the three major entitlements of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid (including Obamacare), as well as net interest, make up more than half of all spending in the federal budget today. Their share of the budget will grow to over two-thirds of all spending in 10 years.

By 2025, the major entitlement programs and net interest together will eat up all tax revenues collected in that year. This implies that all other government spending, including for national defense, would have to be financed by borrowing.

This projection by the Congressional Budget Office assumes that historically low interest rates continue at least until 2015 and that inflation will be modest, inching up toward 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2017. Nevertheless, spending on interest on the debt would double before the end of the decade.

Should the Federal Reserve’s continued and prolonged quantitative easing lead to more severe inflation—a risk that is very real—the dangerous scenario painted in the chart of the year could come about even sooner.

One thing is clear: Lawmakers are playing a risky game for as long as they neglect to address the structural problems in the entitlement programs that are driving the nation deeper and deeper into debt. Reform is inevitable. The only question: Will lawmakers develop the political will before the real fiscal crisis hits or will they be forced into making changes in the midst of it?

Posted in Entitlements, Taxes & Spending, Featured  

Air Shark!

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There we were, surfing the web for ideas of what to get a certain 9-year old boy for Christmas, when we stumbled into something that made us suddenly sit up and say "That is so cool!"

That something is the Air Swimmer Remote Control Inflatable Flying Shark. Here's a Youtube video of it in action:

We like it because it combines a boy's love of flying R/C vehicles with nature's perfect predator! And as an added bonus, it echoes some of the more fun scenes from the 2010 Doctor Who Christmas special, many of which were excerpted and remixed with appropriate music in the following video preview:

The real preview for the 2010 Doctor Who Christmas special is available here. The episode is simply brilliant, with one of the best twists ever in retelling Charles Dickens' classic Christmas Carol story. Very highly recommended!

And at the very least, we've also answered Mark Cuban's problem of what to get his fellow multi-millionaire venture investors on Shark Tank for Christmas this year!

The Growth Trend of Americans Living Alone

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Following on the heels of our finding that the increase in the share of single person households over time is the primary factor in the observed increase in U.S. income inequality for households over the last six decades, we thought it might be interesting to share what we found in the U.S. Census' data from 1940 onward regarding the growth trend of Americans living alone.

Our chart below reveals the general trend for how single person households grew from 7.7% of all U.S. households in 1940 to an estimated 27.5% in 2011.

Here, we find that the percentage share of single person households in the U.S. doubled in the 28 years from 1940 to 1968. It then took another 20 years for the percentage share of single person households to more than triple its 1940 level, reaching that mark in 1988. Since that time, the growth rate of householders living alone has sharply decelerated. The percentage share of single person households has only increased by 3.5% in the last 23 years.

In essence, the number of single-person households in the U.S. grew exponentially from 1940 into the mid-1960s, then steadily from then until about the early 1980s and at a decelerating pace in the years since.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. Households by Size: 1960 to Present. [Excel spreadsheet]. Accessed 16 December 2012.

U.S. Census Bureau. Historical Census of Housing Tables: Living Alone. Accessed 16 December 2012.

Visualizing Teens Working Full or Part Time

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Today's data visualization exercise features the Bureau of Labor Statistics' data reporting the number of U.S. teens working either full or part-time, which goes back to January 1968. Our first chart improves on the BLS' data, by showing how both full and part-time working 16 to 19 year olds make up the complete teen employment scene:

Looking at the chart, we see that full-time jobs for teens peaked in 1979, while we see that part-time jobs for teens peaked in 1999. Overall, the number of part-time jobs for teens has been more stable than the number of full-time jobs, which have been declining since 1980.

The decline in full-time jobs for teens is especially visible in our second chart, which shows how the relative share of full-time jobs for teens has declined in stages over time:

As a short primer to the reasons why the decline in the relative share of full-time jobs for U.S. teens looks the way it does, we'll point you to one document, which reveals the history of both the U.S. federal and California's minimum wages. Note the timing of when major shifts occur in our two charts with the dates listed....

A First Look at 2013's Quarterly Dividends

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We now have dividend futures data through the fourth quarter of 2013. Our chart below shows how the expected future for dividends looks:

Given all the dividend-related activity following the 6 November 2012 election in the United States, where companies have acted to pull dividends from 2013 into 2012 instead to beat a now guaranteed dividend tax increase, we anticipate that there may be quite a bit of error in the actual dividends that will be paid in 2012-Q4 and for 2013-Q1. We believe the value that will actually be recorded for 2012-Q4 will be about $0.42 per share higher than what we've shown on the chart above based on how much money appears to have been transferred from 2013-Q1.

Looking at the history of the expected future for that quarter, 2013-Q1's expected cash dividend of $7.88 per share is down considerably from the high value of $8.30 per share that was expected to be paid in that quarter back on 17 October 2012. Almost all of the decline in the level of expected dividends for 2013-Q1 has taken place since 15 November 2012.

Looking forward now in time, the expected level of cash dividends for the S&P 500 looks as if the first three quarters for the U.S. economy in 2013 will be lackluster. The fourth quarter looks as if it will be better by comparison, but even here we've already seen some erosion in investor expectations for that future quarter.

Here, the expected dividends for that quarter first debuted on 13 December 2012 at $8.90 per share. That has fallen to $8.84 through the futures for 19 December 2012.

We hope you've enjoyed 2012. As we've long forecast, 2013 will be a very different story....

What Difference Would Banning Guns Make?

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In the wake of the Newtown school massacre, we've noted a strong uptick in our site traffic by people wanting to find out how different the U.S. might be if the nation adopted Canada's much more restrictive firearms laws. This post gathers all our analysis on that topic from 2011 in one place.

Who Kills Who

We examine the FBI's data on the race of victims and their killers. We find that the vast majority of offenders prefer to kill their own kind (that evidence is borne out elsewhere, where criminals also seem to prefer killing other criminals!)

U.S. vs Canada: Comparing Oranges and Apples

We want to compare the U.S. and Canada's murder statistics, but find we can't do a direct comparison because Canada is significantly lacking in two things the U.S. has in much greater quantities: blacks and Hispanics!

U.S. vs Canada: Comparing Apples to Apples

We work out how to get around Canada's demographic deficiencies in reporting its homicides to be able to directly compare the populations of both nations.

U.S. vs Canada: Homicide Edition

We determine the real difference in the number of homicides per 100,000 people between Canada and the most demographically-similar-to-Canada portion of the U.S. population.

U.S. vs Canada: Homicide Modi Operandi

This is the one post that has drawn the most attention since the shootings in Connecticut. We break down the number of homicides per 100,000 by method for Canada and the most demographically-similar-to-Canada portion of the U.S. population, finding that Canada's much more strict laws regulating firearms "saves" about one life for every 100,000 people, although Canadian homicide offenders have adapted to the lack of firearms available to them by making murder more brutal.

U.S. vs Canada: Assault Edition

We find that there's an additional price to be paid for saving that one life for every 100,000 people with strict gun control laws. It turns out that after adjusting for the major demographic differences between the two nations, Canada is a much more violent place than is the U.S. (Ed. At least Canadians are polite, eh? Just don't cross them....)

U.S. vs Canada: Suicide Edition

Do Canada's stricter gun-control laws reduce the number of suicides per 100,000 people compared to the U.S.? We find the answer is not at all....

Update: Doc Palmer picks up on a report that indicates the U.S. is also much less violent than the U.K., Sweden, Belgium and Holland - all places that also feature much more restrictive gun laws than does the U.S....

Food Truck Freedom : Regulation VS Food Safety

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This is interesting in that I believe most of us never give it a second thought to food safety on these trucks or who cares where they park. All we care about is getting something to eat, that it might kills us is of no importance.

But given the amount of regulation that cities place on restaurants and other fast food outlets, the following suggestions for control of food trucks and the like are good but not over bearing. They are just 'food' for thought.  hmmmm

Food Truck Freedom
Source: Robert Frommer and Bert Gall, "Food Truck Freedom," Institute for Justice, November 2012.

December 13, 2012
Food trucks are a hot trend across the United States. They provide chefs a low cost avenue to enter the restaurant business. It is important that policymakers recognize the importance food trucks play in local economies and create conditions that allow food trucks to prosper, say Robert Frommer and Bert Gall of the Institute for Justice.

Food safety:

•Cities should follow their state and county health codes.
•If a county or state food code doesn't deal with a specific issue, follow the requirements of Chapter 10 of the California Retail Food Code, which specifically governs food trucks.
•Furthermore, trucks should be inspected when they are first permitted and periodically when they are in the field, holding them to the same standards as restaurants.

Parking:

•Create proximity restrictions and restricted zones.
•Have at least a 20 foot distance from intersections.
•Allow food trucks to operate from metered locations.
•Have no duration restrictions.
•Don't allow food trucks to operate in a way that would interfere with passage of pedestrians or vehicles that would cause congestion.

Licensing:

•Create an application process that models that of Los Angeles County.
•Cities should impose a flat annual fee anywhere between $200 and $300.
•The license should cover the overall vending business rather than the individual vendor.
•Finally, there should be no limit on the number of food truck permits.

Other recommendations for cities to consider:

•Don't require trucks to purchase liability insurance.
•Don't have laws regarding hours of operation.
•Require handwashing stations for trucks that prepare foods and do not require that trucks have bathroom-access agreements with businesses that have bathrooms.
•Exempt food trucks that carry all the equipment to satisfy health and safety concerns from associating with a commissary. But if commissaries are required, allow them to share commissary space. Furthermore, shared commercial kitchens should not be forbidden.

Vfeterans Affairs (VA) Transferred to State Control : Easier Access for Oversight

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The first step to cure the VA problem is transferring it to state control. Use the 'grant' system for funding as this will take away the waste that exists in all federal programs and make oversite much easier.

The Veterans Disability System: Problems and Solutions
Source: Pam Villarreal and Kyle Buckley, "The Veterans Disability System: Problems and Solutions," National Center for Policy Analysis, December 2012.

December 13, 2012
Since the turn of the century, the number and complexity of disability claims has far outpaced the Department of Veterans Affairs' (VA) capacity to process them. More importantly, the VA has misrepresented the causes of the current claims crisis, the reliability of internal accountability measures and the efficacy of attempted solutions, say Pamela Villarreal, a senior fellow, and Kyle Buckley, a research associate, at the National Center for Policy Analysis.

•As of 2011, 22.2 million veterans are currently living in the United States.
•Of these, 38.6 percent are enrolled in the health program.
•Another 16.6 percent receive cash disability compensation.
•It takes about 197 days to complete the average disability claim.
•To put this in perspective, it takes an average of one day for the Social Security Administration to process Disability Insurance claims.

More troubling is the fact that the VA has reported backlogs of about 1 million claims annually. The VA argues that the current backlog is the result of several factors such as exposure to new agents, 10 years of war, and the growth in the average number of claims filed per veteran.

To receive disability compensation, a veteran must have a service-related disability and have been discharged in any way other than dishonorably. Of all the initial claims, 31 percent get denied. Surprisingly, 60 percent of denials are the result of errors.

The VA is unable to quickly and accurately diagnose and compensate soldiers for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) or traumatic brain injury. This is primarily because the deadlines and meetings that the VA imposes are difficult for people dealing with PTSD to meet. Missed deadlines, confusion and lack of focus are all symptoms of PTSD. According to the Office of the Inspector General, 100 percent of claims relating to PTSD or traumatic brain injuries were consistently mismanaged.

There are several avenues the VA can pursue to become more efficient and responsive to the needs of servicemen and women that receive benefits.

•Streamline the transition from active duty to veteran.
•Allow more flexibility for veterans in the VA health care system.
•Transfer administrative services from the federal to state level.
•Allow competitive bidding for administrative services by private contractors.

Medicaid A losing Program : Private Insurance Works

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This is another good example of how we can fix a very bad situation with common sense and intelligence when it comes to our health care decisions.

The free market will always fix our financial and health care problems as long as we stay awake and believe, we as individuals, have the God given right, as stated in our Constitution, to be anything we want to be in a free society. Block grants given to states is a great start to solving some of health care problems.

This means we, again as free individuals, take responsibility for our own actions and the results will tell whether or not we will succeed in our life ambitions or be an also ran. It will be entirely up to us to make these life changing decisions.

Being able to choose which insurance company will best suit our individual needs and financial capabilities is being responsible for our own well being. To have a select few in a far away city make these decisions for us is repugnant and Un-American. 

Exchanging Medicaid for Private Insurance
Source: Devon M. Herrick, "Exchanging Medicaid for Private Insurance," National Center for Policy Analysis, December 2012.

December 14, 2012
The Supreme Court upheld the Affordable Care Act (ACA), but not without striking down a provision that would refuse federal Medicaid funds to states that didn't expand their Medicaid programs. Other provisions of the ACA will give sliding-scale subsidies to low-to-middle income individuals for the purchase of private health coverage in a health insurance exchange that will be set up in each state beginning in 2014, says Devon M. Herrick, a senior fellow at the National Center for Policy Analysis.

The health insurance exchanges will be set up by either the state or the federal government. People that do not receive health plans through their employers or Medicaid are eligible for exchange subsidies.

•In states that don't expand Medicaid coverage to individuals with incomes of 100 percent to 133 percent of the federal poverty levels, those individuals will be eligible for subsidized coverage in the exchange.
•In every state, individuals earning 133 percent to 400 percent of poverty will be eligible for subsidized coverage through the exchange.
•However, not everyone will enroll in the exchanges.

Medicaid expansion will cost the state and federal governments a massive amount of money.

•The federal government will spend over $295 billion over the 10-year period to cover newly eligible individuals earning 100 percent to 133 percent of poverty.
•States would also bear an additional $19 billion in costs.
•However, letting private insurers pay market rates for medical care would increase medical spending by $233 billion, which is good for doctors and hospitals.
•Moreover, it would only cost the state about $9 billion over the next decade to pay its share of premiums to entice low-income population to sign up for coverage.
•This would leave the remaining $10 billion to be spent on the uninsured or on Medicaid enrollees earning below 100 percent of the poverty level.

Medicaid has several problems that make its expansion undesirable:

•Poor access to care.
•Overcrowded emergency rooms.
•Worse health outcomes.
•Low Medicaid provider payments.
•Crowd out of private insurance.

A better solution would be to convert Medicaid into block grants. This would allow the federal government to provide each state a fixed sum of money and allow states the flexibility in designing programs that fit their individual needs.

ObamaCare Overhaul Necessary

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Excellent suggestions to fix ObamaCare which is a nightmare for us all. The billions that are here already in new taxes, and the new regulations that are on the way, now that the election is over and the progressives socialist won, will have a huge impact on our daily lives.

Clear thinking will result in common sense solutions, something that an agenda driven government will not understand or consider.

Repairing ObamaCare
Source: John C. Goodman, "Repairing ObamaCare," McClatchy, December 13, 2012.

December 14, 2012
After the recent election, virtually all commentators quickly concluded that the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare) is safe; Republicans are powerless to stop it. The trouble is: ObamaCare is a deeply flawed law. Here are five essential changes that could fix it, says John C. Goodman, president and CEO of the National Center for Policy Analysis, and a research fellow with the Independent Institute.

•First, subsidize all insurance the same way. The way government currently subsidizes health insurance is arbitrary and unfair. Employees with employer-provided insurance get that benefit tax free. There is almost no subsidy, however, for people who must purchase insurance on their own. Under ObamaCare the subsidies become even more arbitrary. All insurance should get the same tax relief, regardless of where it is obtained.

•Second, make the subsidy a fixed sum "tax credit" -- that is, a dollar-for-dollar reduction in your tax bill. For example, offer a $2,500 credit against the first $2,500 of health insurance premiums. For a family of four, the credit would be about $8,000. These credits would be "refundable," a technical term meaning people would get the subsidy even if they owe no income taxes.

•Third, create and fund a safety net option. If people turn down the offer of a tax credit, make that credit available to safety net institutions that provide care to people without insurance. If people can't pay their medical bills, these funds would be there as a backstop. Under this arrangement, money follows people.

•Fourth, don't let people "game" the system. Instead of a mandate to purchase health insurance, give people a one-time opportunity to obtain insurance on a guaranteed issue basis, regardless of their health conditions. If they turn down the offer and apply later, insurers would be able to consider their medical condition and charge them a higher premium that reflects the full expected cost of their care.

•Fifth, get rid of the mandate. With the first four fixes in place, there's no need for a mandate. Instead, there will be a strong financial incentive to obtain health insurance. Government offers everyone a generous subsidy to buy health insurance in the form of lower taxes. If they turn down the subsidy, they pay higher taxes.

That's not different in principle from the current system, except that the reforms suggested here would make that arrangement fairer and more rational.

Canadian Health Care Wait Time : Not Days, but Months

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Exactly who are the people that continue to exalt the Canadian medical system of single payer? Wait time for service is beyond belief but understandable given the Canadian system is controlled by governement.

But hey, no need to guess who in our country wants single payer, it's obvious, it's the same people that shout and wave their collective arms about how great the Cuba medical system is, even though they know that in some cases the final solution to a problem is a 9mm. Cheap and effective, not to mention, relatively painless.

Who are these people that claim to be the smartest in the room, they are progressive socialists liberal Democrats. The same people that brought us ObamaCare even though 72% of the population didn't want it. Mr Obama said he wanted single payer and now we are about to feel the full force of that promise.

The next question that has to be asked is who voted in November to make ObamaCare a reality even thought so many stated they didn't want it? Who are these people? Why won't these people stand up for all to see and proclaim their allegiance to ObamaCare?

Waiting Your Turn
Source: Bacchus Barua and Nadeem Esmail, "Waiting Your Turn," Fraser Institute, December 2012.

December 14, 2012
The Fraser Institute has released the results of its survey of waiting times for elective medical treatments in Canada.

•Specialist physicians surveyed across 12 specialties and 10 Canadian provinces reported an average waiting time of 17.7 weeks between general practitioner referral and the elective treatment.
•Wait times for referral by general practitioner and consultation with a specialist fell to 8.5 weeks from 9.5 weeks one year ago.
•There was an estimated 870,462 people waiting for procedures across all 10 provinces.
•Assuming each person waits to have only one procedure done, that means 2.5 percent of Canadians were waiting for treatment.
•However, the report shows 10.3 percent of patients were on the waiting list because they chose to wait.

It should also be noted that there is substantial variation in wait times between provinces and the different specialties.

•Ontario, for example, report an average wait time of 14.9 weeks.
•However, New Brunswick reports an average of 35.1 weeks.
•As far as specialties, patients report the longest wait time between referral and orthopedic surgery, at 39.6 weeks.
•But those waiting for oncology treatment wait only about 4.1 weeks.

While the report does show that wait times are decreasing overall for Canadians, it still highlights that wait times are at a historic level. Many physicians agree that the wait times go far beyond what would be considered reasonable.

From an economic point of view, these wait times represent a large loss of economic output.

•The cost of waiting for treatments such as total joint replacement, cataract surgery, coronary artery bypass and MRI scans was an estimated $14.8 billion in 2007.
•In 2010, the cost of waiting per patient was an additional $1,144.
•As a result of dealing with long wait lines, 0.9 percent of patients opted to receive treatments in another country.

Retirement Age Going Up? Whatz the Best Age?

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By raising the age for Social Security, most people would opt to work longer rather then just  shooting for that one age where we are all told we are done for the rest of our life. The problem I have is who are these people that dictate how long we can work? 

And, by the way, eliminate the early retirement age of 62, or if you want to retire early, and want benefits, you will get significantly less money then if you work all the way to 67 or 69. It will be a choice.

Benefits at What Age?
Source: Liqun Liu, Andrew J. Rettenmaier, and Thomas R. Saving, "Lifetime Income, Longevity and Social Security Progressivity," National Center for Policy Analysis, December 2012.

December 11, 2012
Should we raise the age of eligibility for Social Security and Medicare? Life expectancy has increased seven years since 1970. So, should the eligibility age be raised seven years as well? One problem. Over the past 20 years, life expectancy at age 65 has risen five years for men with above average income but only one year for men with below average income.

In a new study, NCPA Senior Fellow and former Social Security and Medicare Trustee Thomas Saving and NCPA Senior Fellow Andrew Rettenmaier explain how we can skirt this problem: raise the age of eligibility for Social Security and at the same time make the benefit formula more progressive. For Medicare, you could make the premium payments more progressive.

The authors find:

•Once longevity differences are accounted for, Social Security's progressivity is lessened, relative to estimates based on average longevity estimates by birth year.
•However, even for the most recent group of new retirees analyzed, the program remains progressive.
•Further, the study finds that within birth years, the program redistributes from high to low earning workers, even after accounting for income-related differences in longevity.

Combining an increase in the retirement age for all workers with an adjustment to the benefit formula would result in a program that could be financed in the long run at the current tax rate and would retain the program's relative lifetime progressivity.

Progressive price indexing is a reform by which low-income workers' past earnings continue to be indexed by average wages whereas high income workers earnings would be indexed by price level changes. Progressive price indexing would further address concerns about the growth in total benefit payments while retaining and perhaps enhancing the system's progressivity.

Green Energy Fails to Connect With Reality : Who Knew?

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More bad news for green energy but then most of us, that are awake in the real world, knew this from the start. It's only those that are invested in population control that want unilateral energy changes. That the new energy sources are not viable means nothing, it's the ability to dictate outcomes by controlling how people live. It's as simple as that.

Ask the question as to who is driving the green energy program that has failed on all fronts and what are the rewards for doing so? The answer is always the same, progressive socialist Democrats, you know, the ones that were just sent back to Washington for 4 more years of high gas prices and food prices that are driving families into poverty.

Think of it as giving a certain group of elites one more chance to crush the American dream. Remember this line from the campaign in 2008, " I want to fundamentally change this country".

What rational did the voter use to want more financial disaster, less income and less personal freedom to choose one's own destiny? Who actually voted for this nightmare?

The Impossibility of Rapid Energy Transitions
Source: Kenneth P. Green, "The Impossibility of Rapid Energy Transitions," The American, December 6, 2012.

December 11, 2012
For decades, politicians have made promises of transitioning to cleaner, more sustainable sources of energy. National security is also a justification that politicians have employed in an effort to garner support for energy transitions. Even now, there is a transition from imported oil and coal to natural gas power plants, says Kenneth P. Green, a senior fellow with Canada's Fraser Institute.

However, despite promises and billions of dollars spent on trying to start an energy revolution, little has been achieved. This is largely because the technology can be very expensive. But more importantly, these technologies don't have the momentum behind them to create an energy transition.

There are three different types of momentum that are necessary when talking about making energy transitions:

•Technological momentum -- When the impact of a technology reaches far beyond itself. For example, the light bulb spawned thousands of variations of it, which led to entire buildings having light fixtures.

•Labor-pool momentum -- The necessary supply of trained talent to enable a transition to other energy sources. This is important because their needs to be specialized engineers, designers, regulators and operators that are needed in the new energy industry.

•Economic momentum -- The costs of development are extremely high and have lengthy lifespans which means that it takes a long time before the costs have been recovered, making it difficult to find investors.

Green Energy Nighmare : 4 More Years of Failure

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Again, green energy is a failure and it's being forced on us by the current progressive socialists that now have just been reelected. Green energy is costing all of us billions and will cost all of us billions more with results that are no different then what we all saw in the first four years of 'The One'.

Who voted for this? Are they uninformed or just plain ignorant. When you see your power bill "sky rocket" as promised by Mr Obama, you decide if this was smart or insane!

The Failure of Wind Power
Source: Kevin D. Williamson, "Deval-used Wind Power," National Review Online, December 3, 2012.

December 11, 2012
Some politicians, like Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, are very ambitious about the role of alternative energy in electricity generation. His goal for the state is to produce 2,000 megawatts of power from alternative energy sources by 2020, says Kevin D. Williamson of the National Review.

Patrick expects wind power to be a major alternative source. However, as the general manager of the local utility authority in Princeton, Mass., describes, many wind-energy projects are failures.

•Princeton Municipal Light Department's wind-energy project has lost nearly $2 million.
•Customers of this utility company pay more in their electricity bill than the average customer -- totaling nearly $744,000 in 2011.
•Moreover, the general manager projects the project to lose $600,000 a year.

The projected yearly losses don't assume changes in wholesale electricity rates or repair costs, which can be extravagant.

•Original warranties on turbines have expired and extended warranty options are not available.
•This is problematic considering that the cost of replacing a gearbox, for instance, is estimated at $600,000.
•About $40 billion worth of wind turbines will go out of warranty by the end of 2012.

Additionally, wind turbines are out of commission more than 20 percent of the time -- only 0.5 percent of that time accounts for regularly scheduled maintenance. This makes it difficult for companies to produce cheap energy to consumers.

On top of the costs of utility losses and the price of subsidies, companies forgo investments in more economically viable projects. Rather than have the government provide incentives for certain ventures, market forces can direct companies and public officials to make sound investments. For example, agricultural and industrial users have more to gain from wind-energy projects than municipal utilities.

In some cases, wind energy has proven an economical investment. Valero installed a massive wind farm at its refinery in Texas that generates enough electricity for the entire complex. Furthermore, equipment used to run Marcellus Shale gas runs off solar power.

In both cases, the firms were willing to invest in the alternative energy because it was economical, not because the government provided incentives.

Get ready for the new year with January's Tax Due Date Reminders!

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The staff at Holdsworth & Co. joins you in saying goodbye to 2011 and ringing in a healthy and prosperous 2012!  

Thanks for visiting our recently launched blogsite.  As we begin the new year, we want to help keep you on course with a list of tax due date reminders for January.  We're happy to answer any of your questions and are just a phone call away. 

January 10	Employees - who work for tips. If you received $20 or more in tips during December, report them to your employer. You can use Form 4070, Employee's Report of Tips to Employer.
January 17	Employers - Social Security, Medicare, and withheld income tax. If the monthly deposit rule applies, deposit the tax for payments in December 2011.Individuals - Make a payment of your estimated tax for 2011 if you did not pay your income tax for the year through withholding (or did not pay in enough tax that way). Use Form 1040-ES. This is the final installment date for 2011 estimated tax. However, you do not have to make this payment if you file your 2011 return (Form 1040) and pay any tax due by January 31, 2012.Employers - Nonpayroll Withholding. If the monthly deposit rule applies, deposit the tax for payments in December 2011.Farmers and Fishermen - Pay your estimated tax for 2011 using Form 1040-ES. You have until April 17 to file your 2011 income tax return (Form 1040). If you do not pay your estimated tax by January 17, you must file your 2011 return and pay any tax due by March 1, 2012, to avoid an estimated tax penalty.
January 31	Employers - Give your employees their copies of Form W-2 for 2011 by January 31, 2012. If an employee agreed to receive Form W-2 electronically, post it on a website accessible to the employee and notify the employee of the posting by January 31.Businesses - Give annual information statements to recipients of 1099 payments made during 2011.Employers - Federal unemployment tax. File Form 940 for 2011. If your undeposited tax is $500 or less, you can either pay it with your return or deposit it. If it is more than $500, you must deposit it. However, if you already deposited the tax for the year in full and on time, you have until February 10 to file the return.Employers - Social Security, Medicare, and withheld income tax. File Form 941 for the fourth quarter of 2011. Deposit any undeposited tax. (If your tax liability is less than $2,500, you can pay it in full with a timely filed return.) If you deposited the tax for the quarter in full and on time, you have until February 10 to file the return.Employers - Nonpayroll taxes. File Form 945 to report income tax withheld for 2011 on all nonpayroll items, including backup withholding and withholding on pensions, annuities, IRAs, gambling winnings, and payments of Indian gaming profits to tribal members. Deposit any undeposited tax. (If your tax liability is less than $2,500, you can pay it in full with a timely filed return.) If you deposited the tax for the year in full and on time, you have until February 10 to file the return.Individuals - who must make estimated tax payments. If you did not pay your last installment of estimated tax by January 17, you may choose (but are not required) to file your income tax return (Form 1040) for 2011. Filing your return and paying any tax due by January 31 prevents any penalty for late payment of last installment.Payers of Gambling Winnings - If you either paid reportable gambling winnings or withheld income tax from gambling winnings, give the winners their copies of Form W-2G.Certain Small Employers - File Form 944 to report Social Security and Medicare taxes and withheld income tax for 2011. Deposit or pay any undeposited tax under the accuracy of deposit rules. If your tax liability is $2,500 or more from 2011 but less than $2,500 for the fourth quarter, deposit any undeposited tax or pay it in full with a timely filed return.