Air Shark!

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There we were, surfing the web for ideas of what to get a certain 9-year old boy for Christmas, when we stumbled into something that made us suddenly sit up and say "That is so cool!"

That something is the Air Swimmer Remote Control Inflatable Flying Shark. Here's a Youtube video of it in action:

We like it because it combines a boy's love of flying R/C vehicles with nature's perfect predator! And as an added bonus, it echoes some of the more fun scenes from the 2010 Doctor Who Christmas special, many of which were excerpted and remixed with appropriate music in the following video preview:

The real preview for the 2010 Doctor Who Christmas special is available here. The episode is simply brilliant, with one of the best twists ever in retelling Charles Dickens' classic Christmas Carol story. Very highly recommended!

And at the very least, we've also answered Mark Cuban's problem of what to get his fellow multi-millionaire venture investors on Shark Tank for Christmas this year!

The Growth Trend of Americans Living Alone

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Following on the heels of our finding that the increase in the share of single person households over time is the primary factor in the observed increase in U.S. income inequality for households over the last six decades, we thought it might be interesting to share what we found in the U.S. Census' data from 1940 onward regarding the growth trend of Americans living alone.

Our chart below reveals the general trend for how single person households grew from 7.7% of all U.S. households in 1940 to an estimated 27.5% in 2011.

Here, we find that the percentage share of single person households in the U.S. doubled in the 28 years from 1940 to 1968. It then took another 20 years for the percentage share of single person households to more than triple its 1940 level, reaching that mark in 1988. Since that time, the growth rate of householders living alone has sharply decelerated. The percentage share of single person households has only increased by 3.5% in the last 23 years.

In essence, the number of single-person households in the U.S. grew exponentially from 1940 into the mid-1960s, then steadily from then until about the early 1980s and at a decelerating pace in the years since.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. Households by Size: 1960 to Present. [Excel spreadsheet]. Accessed 16 December 2012.

U.S. Census Bureau. Historical Census of Housing Tables: Living Alone. Accessed 16 December 2012.

Visualizing Teens Working Full or Part Time

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Today's data visualization exercise features the Bureau of Labor Statistics' data reporting the number of U.S. teens working either full or part-time, which goes back to January 1968. Our first chart improves on the BLS' data, by showing how both full and part-time working 16 to 19 year olds make up the complete teen employment scene:

Looking at the chart, we see that full-time jobs for teens peaked in 1979, while we see that part-time jobs for teens peaked in 1999. Overall, the number of part-time jobs for teens has been more stable than the number of full-time jobs, which have been declining since 1980.

The decline in full-time jobs for teens is especially visible in our second chart, which shows how the relative share of full-time jobs for teens has declined in stages over time:

As a short primer to the reasons why the decline in the relative share of full-time jobs for U.S. teens looks the way it does, we'll point you to one document, which reveals the history of both the U.S. federal and California's minimum wages. Note the timing of when major shifts occur in our two charts with the dates listed....

A First Look at 2013's Quarterly Dividends

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We now have dividend futures data through the fourth quarter of 2013. Our chart below shows how the expected future for dividends looks:

Given all the dividend-related activity following the 6 November 2012 election in the United States, where companies have acted to pull dividends from 2013 into 2012 instead to beat a now guaranteed dividend tax increase, we anticipate that there may be quite a bit of error in the actual dividends that will be paid in 2012-Q4 and for 2013-Q1. We believe the value that will actually be recorded for 2012-Q4 will be about $0.42 per share higher than what we've shown on the chart above based on how much money appears to have been transferred from 2013-Q1.

Looking at the history of the expected future for that quarter, 2013-Q1's expected cash dividend of $7.88 per share is down considerably from the high value of $8.30 per share that was expected to be paid in that quarter back on 17 October 2012. Almost all of the decline in the level of expected dividends for 2013-Q1 has taken place since 15 November 2012.

Looking forward now in time, the expected level of cash dividends for the S&P 500 looks as if the first three quarters for the U.S. economy in 2013 will be lackluster. The fourth quarter looks as if it will be better by comparison, but even here we've already seen some erosion in investor expectations for that future quarter.

Here, the expected dividends for that quarter first debuted on 13 December 2012 at $8.90 per share. That has fallen to $8.84 through the futures for 19 December 2012.

We hope you've enjoyed 2012. As we've long forecast, 2013 will be a very different story....

What Difference Would Banning Guns Make?

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In the wake of the Newtown school massacre, we've noted a strong uptick in our site traffic by people wanting to find out how different the U.S. might be if the nation adopted Canada's much more restrictive firearms laws. This post gathers all our analysis on that topic from 2011 in one place.

Who Kills Who

We examine the FBI's data on the race of victims and their killers. We find that the vast majority of offenders prefer to kill their own kind (that evidence is borne out elsewhere, where criminals also seem to prefer killing other criminals!)

U.S. vs Canada: Comparing Oranges and Apples

We want to compare the U.S. and Canada's murder statistics, but find we can't do a direct comparison because Canada is significantly lacking in two things the U.S. has in much greater quantities: blacks and Hispanics!

U.S. vs Canada: Comparing Apples to Apples

We work out how to get around Canada's demographic deficiencies in reporting its homicides to be able to directly compare the populations of both nations.

U.S. vs Canada: Homicide Edition

We determine the real difference in the number of homicides per 100,000 people between Canada and the most demographically-similar-to-Canada portion of the U.S. population.

U.S. vs Canada: Homicide Modi Operandi

This is the one post that has drawn the most attention since the shootings in Connecticut. We break down the number of homicides per 100,000 by method for Canada and the most demographically-similar-to-Canada portion of the U.S. population, finding that Canada's much more strict laws regulating firearms "saves" about one life for every 100,000 people, although Canadian homicide offenders have adapted to the lack of firearms available to them by making murder more brutal.

U.S. vs Canada: Assault Edition

We find that there's an additional price to be paid for saving that one life for every 100,000 people with strict gun control laws. It turns out that after adjusting for the major demographic differences between the two nations, Canada is a much more violent place than is the U.S. (Ed. At least Canadians are polite, eh? Just don't cross them....)

U.S. vs Canada: Suicide Edition

Do Canada's stricter gun-control laws reduce the number of suicides per 100,000 people compared to the U.S.? We find the answer is not at all....

Update: Doc Palmer picks up on a report that indicates the U.S. is also much less violent than the U.K., Sweden, Belgium and Holland - all places that also feature much more restrictive gun laws than does the U.S....

Food Truck Freedom : Regulation VS Food Safety

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This is interesting in that I believe most of us never give it a second thought to food safety on these trucks or who cares where they park. All we care about is getting something to eat, that it might kills us is of no importance.

But given the amount of regulation that cities place on restaurants and other fast food outlets, the following suggestions for control of food trucks and the like are good but not over bearing. They are just 'food' for thought.  hmmmm

Food Truck Freedom
Source: Robert Frommer and Bert Gall, "Food Truck Freedom," Institute for Justice, November 2012.

December 13, 2012
Food trucks are a hot trend across the United States. They provide chefs a low cost avenue to enter the restaurant business. It is important that policymakers recognize the importance food trucks play in local economies and create conditions that allow food trucks to prosper, say Robert Frommer and Bert Gall of the Institute for Justice.

Food safety:

•Cities should follow their state and county health codes.
•If a county or state food code doesn't deal with a specific issue, follow the requirements of Chapter 10 of the California Retail Food Code, which specifically governs food trucks.
•Furthermore, trucks should be inspected when they are first permitted and periodically when they are in the field, holding them to the same standards as restaurants.

Parking:

•Create proximity restrictions and restricted zones.
•Have at least a 20 foot distance from intersections.
•Allow food trucks to operate from metered locations.
•Have no duration restrictions.
•Don't allow food trucks to operate in a way that would interfere with passage of pedestrians or vehicles that would cause congestion.

Licensing:

•Create an application process that models that of Los Angeles County.
•Cities should impose a flat annual fee anywhere between $200 and $300.
•The license should cover the overall vending business rather than the individual vendor.
•Finally, there should be no limit on the number of food truck permits.

Other recommendations for cities to consider:

•Don't require trucks to purchase liability insurance.
•Don't have laws regarding hours of operation.
•Require handwashing stations for trucks that prepare foods and do not require that trucks have bathroom-access agreements with businesses that have bathrooms.
•Exempt food trucks that carry all the equipment to satisfy health and safety concerns from associating with a commissary. But if commissaries are required, allow them to share commissary space. Furthermore, shared commercial kitchens should not be forbidden.

Vfeterans Affairs (VA) Transferred to State Control : Easier Access for Oversight

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The first step to cure the VA problem is transferring it to state control. Use the 'grant' system for funding as this will take away the waste that exists in all federal programs and make oversite much easier.

The Veterans Disability System: Problems and Solutions
Source: Pam Villarreal and Kyle Buckley, "The Veterans Disability System: Problems and Solutions," National Center for Policy Analysis, December 2012.

December 13, 2012
Since the turn of the century, the number and complexity of disability claims has far outpaced the Department of Veterans Affairs' (VA) capacity to process them. More importantly, the VA has misrepresented the causes of the current claims crisis, the reliability of internal accountability measures and the efficacy of attempted solutions, say Pamela Villarreal, a senior fellow, and Kyle Buckley, a research associate, at the National Center for Policy Analysis.

•As of 2011, 22.2 million veterans are currently living in the United States.
•Of these, 38.6 percent are enrolled in the health program.
•Another 16.6 percent receive cash disability compensation.
•It takes about 197 days to complete the average disability claim.
•To put this in perspective, it takes an average of one day for the Social Security Administration to process Disability Insurance claims.

More troubling is the fact that the VA has reported backlogs of about 1 million claims annually. The VA argues that the current backlog is the result of several factors such as exposure to new agents, 10 years of war, and the growth in the average number of claims filed per veteran.

To receive disability compensation, a veteran must have a service-related disability and have been discharged in any way other than dishonorably. Of all the initial claims, 31 percent get denied. Surprisingly, 60 percent of denials are the result of errors.

The VA is unable to quickly and accurately diagnose and compensate soldiers for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) or traumatic brain injury. This is primarily because the deadlines and meetings that the VA imposes are difficult for people dealing with PTSD to meet. Missed deadlines, confusion and lack of focus are all symptoms of PTSD. According to the Office of the Inspector General, 100 percent of claims relating to PTSD or traumatic brain injuries were consistently mismanaged.

There are several avenues the VA can pursue to become more efficient and responsive to the needs of servicemen and women that receive benefits.

•Streamline the transition from active duty to veteran.
•Allow more flexibility for veterans in the VA health care system.
•Transfer administrative services from the federal to state level.
•Allow competitive bidding for administrative services by private contractors.